An exit poll is a survey of people who have just voted – as they “exit” from a voting station or centre. Results allows ‘pollsters’ to predict the overall result.
Advantages of an exit poll are that they provide the public with an immediate gauge of the likely election outcome. This is all the more true given the advantages of immediate broadcast via new media, such as Twitter. Exit polls can act as a valuable safeguard against counting fraud. The potential pitfalls however, are obvious: voters may provide misleading information or refuse to take part, a sample size may not be adequately representative, and so forth. Well-constructed exit polls, however, are usually an extremely accurate means of predicting the result; hence their popularity with the media.
Information gathered in exit polls can often be complex. Detailed demographic information – sex, age, ethnicity, and income, for example – will allow more reliable predictions. Sometimes, exit pollsters also gather additional information about why voters made the choice they did. In reporting exit polls, the same considerations apply as with opinion polls. Only exit polls run by reputable organisations should be reported. Reporting should include information about the location of the polling and sample size, along with the margin of error. However, since exit polls are not, strictly speaking, predictive, there are various other questions to consider:
Inconsistencies between exit polls and results are only indicative. They do not prove that there was rigging or malpractice. As in Venezuela, further investigation would be needed to establish the cause of inconsistency between results. There would be cause for concern, however, if news media did not try to explore and explain these inconsistencies, as in the US in 2004. And, of course, actually altering exit poll findings is seriously unethical.
What has also become a matter of controversy is the reporting of exit poll results before actual voting has finished. This is particularly an issue in large countries spread across several time zones. The country where this has been a particular issue is the United States – spread across several time zones and with widespread Internet access. The main argument against reporting exit poll findings before the end of voting is that these might influence people who have not yet voted. Journalists maintain that just because they have acquired a piece of information (like an exit poll result) does not mean that they have to publish it immediately. Sometimes journalists may consider it an ethical obligation not to do so. This is a debate that has no definitive resolution.
