Risk assessment is carried out in order to predict possible problems and to identify their likely sources with the primary objective of preventing such problems from arising in the first place. Risks need to be identified, analyzed, quantified and prioritized.

Risks can be grouped in two categories - both of which need to be taken into account in the procurement plan. Endogenous risks are risks that are largely within the control of the organisation. Examples are poor procurement planning, poor contract management, inadequate forecasting procedures etc. Exogenous risks, on the other hand, are risks that are largely outside the control of the organisation such as the risks of weather, military activities, political activities etc. These risks require contingency planning.

Risk assessment requires careful and systematic analysis of endogenous and exogenous factors that may influence the smooth implementation of a well-defined procurement plan. It provides an important basis for risk management at the subsequent stage.

Based on the reasons above, and the fluid nature of election budgets, it is thus immensely important to include, as possible, contingency line items in the budget.

The most commonly experienced challenges in electoral procurement preparations, which increase the risks of the process relate to: decisions on implementation methodologies; development of technical specifications and terms of reference; time constraints; insufficient budgets for procurement needs; and national ownership and capacities. Here are some examples:

• Structural risks related to a “one-time” electoral event, while implementation structure/s may be oriented towards a more regular/long term programme or project. As such a one-time electoral event may require human resources, technical expertise and procurement structures to be built up from new
• Risks related to market distortion caused by intense political lobbying by suppliers which may lead to a prejudicial outcome of the tender process
• Risks of unrealistic expectations of the procurement rules and regulations and the marketplace, which may negatively impact the overall project time line
• Risks caused by inflexible deadlines (voter registration and election dates) which are often used by critical stakeholders as a tool to exert pressure on procurement agents without giving thought that it can cause serious “value-for-money” predicaments
• Reputation risks for the assistance provider if the media and certain stakeholders misrepresent the procurement actions
• Risks of uncertain or insufficient budgets and erroneous or incomplete technical specifications and terms of reference for procurement needs, to the extent where these will impact the total quality and quantity of goods and services to be procured
• Risks of inappropriate introduction of technological high-tech solutions and innovations without a complete overview/understanding of operational running costs and sustainability
• Risks related to lack of local technical service, backup support and spares for highend technological solutions. The more specialised the technology deployed, the less likely it is to find local spares for it. Down times could thus equate to lengthy transportation delays of both spare parts and overseas technicians
• Risks of not being able to locate, attract and retain staff with appropriate levels of skill. The more high-tech the solution the more likely this risk
• Risks of misuse of the implemented system, e.g. because of poor data protection, legal or IT-security-related

Contingency planning is to have a reserve for when something not under our control goes wrong. Some examples of risks requiring contingency planning in the ICTs area include:

• Risk of data loss: Contingencies may include multiple data backup strategies such as; on same server (in case of file corruption one can recover very quickly), on different server (if the primary server crashes, one can switch to a backup server), off site (in case of equipment loss, one does not lose the data but faces a time delay to procure equipment and set the system up as before) and off-site disaster recovery sites
• Poor quality of infrastructure: For example on power one can ask the question what if there is a power cut or over voltage spike? One contingency is to use sufficient power conditioning such as mechanical Automatic Voltage Regulators (AVR) to smooth irregular voltage levels, Uninterruptable Power Supplies (UPS) for short power cuts. But what if the power cut continues past the support time of the UPS? The answer would be standby generators (and fuel). But what if the power supply to the computer breaks? The answer to that would be redundant power supplies on servers and computers. Often cost will determine how far the project can push the risk away and place contingencies in its way
• Dust: Dust can cause the computer cooling systems not to work properly. One contingency would be to use dust prevention or filters. Afghanistan had a major problem with fine dust. So did north Nigeria (close to the Sahara Desert). A plan should be in place to check and clean these filters often
• Overheating in hot conditions: One contingency would be to use redundant air conditioners. All computer equipment releases energy in the form of heat Air conditioners should be matched to be able to exchange this heat. Additional air conditioning units should be used as contingency in case one breaks down
• Power overload: Power consumption is normally under estimated for data centres. Power distribution boards should be designed to handle huge power loads in data centres to prevent electrical fires. As a contingency, enough ‘extra’ power consumption should be allowed to add more computers to the circuits, but not so much extra that a short circuit will be detected too late. This should be determined by a qualified person
• Out of Time: Close to the election, the Moldovan EMB wished to procure 40 laptops and the UNDP project selected the LTA route as it would fast track the procurement. The LTA holder was very comfortable with the timeframes and agreed to the terms and accepted the Purchase Order (PO) through New York. However, the LTA holder was not aware of a change in law which limited the amount of lithium allowed on board an aircraft. The batteries of the 40 laptops exceeded this law and the 40 Laptops where not delivered in time for the elections. The project had to rent laptops at 2/3rds of the price of buying them. In this example, too many things went wrong. The EMB made a late decision, the LTA holder was not aware of updated shipping regulations, the procurement officers did not follow up on the Purchase Order in a timely fashion. It cannot be stressed enough that most additional high costs are due to the lack of forward planning.