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Reporting Opinion Polls

Used properly, opinion polls can be an important way of measuring what voters think about particular issues, parties, and candidates. Newspapers and broadcasters often commission their own polls to give them information about voters' intentions. An opinion poll can also be a means of determining what voters think about a particular issue - or what they think the important issues are. These issues might not be the similar to those deemed important by politicians. Arguably, opinion polls help enhance democratic choice. For example, in a first past the post system, a poll might assist those who wish to vote tactically to ensure certain candidates fail.  This is done by not voting for a favourite (or first) choice but instead, voting for a candidate who is more likely to win over a less favourite option.

The danger with opinion polls is that they are often subject to manipulation or inaccuracies at many levels: question choice and wording, sample choice and size, survey timing, and so on, can all impact the results of a poll. This impact is quite distinct from a normal margin of error form of survey, and furthermore. A well-conducted poll is often remarkably accurate. Poll limitations must be clearly understood as well however. That is why media reporting of opinion poll findings demands high professional standards. It is also why reporting on election related opinion polls is often subject to regulation by an electoral supervisory body to make sure that the media are not communicating deliberate falsehoods.

Accuracy, and relevance, is clearly improved if media report the result of all opinion polls, hence minimizing the impact of "rogue" polls, which can occur even with the most professional of polling techniques.

Professional coverage of opinion polls means not only reporting the results of the poll, but also addressing a number of key questions about how the survey was conducted - and conveying this information to the audience:

  • Who conducted the poll? Are they reputable and independent?
  • How many people were interviewed?
  • How were they chosen?
  • Are the published results based upon the answers of all those interviewed?
  • When was the poll conducted?
  • What is the sampling error?
  • What questions were asked - and how were they worded? In what order were they asked?
  • How do the results of this poll compare with other findings?