by Jonathan Stonestreet, Alden Mahler Levine, and Luke Tyburski*

The 2001 Arusha Accords and the 2005 Constitution raised hopes that Burundi could build democratic institutions and escape a cycle of ethnically-based violence.  Burundi had been relatively peaceful and had seen diminished ethnic tensions reflected by multiethnic representation in government institutions and the military. Although most of the opposition boycotted national elections in 2010, opposition parties were poised to contest the 2015 elections. Despite a number of significant problems, a vocal civil society advocated for democratic rights, and independent media was able to report relatively freely on political developments.

As the 2015 cycle of local, parliamentary and presidential elections approached, however, the electoral environment deteriorated dramatically. Burundi is increasingly affected by political tension, fear and violence. Protests take place almost on a daily basis in the capital Bujumbura. At least 40 people have been killed, many more wounded, and over 100,000 refugees have fled Burundi due to intimidation and fear of violence. Parliamentary and communal elections (originally scheduled for May 26) and the presidential election (originally scheduled for June 26) have now been postponed until June 29 and July 15 respectively.

Key issues that have impacted the run-up to elections include a lack of political space for the opposition, the perceived lack of independence of the election commission (CENI), voter registration problems, and intimidation by the ruling party’s youth wing, the Imbonerakure. At the heart of the crisis, however, is the question of whether the president can run for a third term in office. The opposition, civil society groups, and the Catholic Church note that the Constitution clearly specifies that the president can only serve a maximum of two terms and that President Nkurunziza is ineligible to run since he was re-elected in 2010. The president has taken the position that the two term limit does not apply, as he was indirectly elected by parliament in 2005 rather than being directly elected by the people.

Following the announcement that the president would run again on April 26, 2015, popular protests began in Bujumbura. The Constitutional Court validated the president’s position, although one member subsequently fled to Rwanda citing pressure on the court. After several days of protest, a military coup attempt took place on May 13 while President Nkurunziza was out of the country to attend a summit of the East African Community (EAC). The coup was put down and most of the leaders arrested, but in the turmoil election preparations were disrupted and independent radio stations were destroyed, leaving only the government run station in operation. Protests against the president’s decision to run for a third term immediately resumed. The response of security forces to the protests has often been violent, while protestors have also attacked police on some occasions.

The United Nations sponsored a dialogue process including the government, opposition leaders, and some civil society leaders. The dialogue made progress on several issues but was unable to address the third-term issue before being interrupted when the leader of an opposition party was assassinated on May 23. On May 31, an emergency EAC Summit urged postponement of the elections by six weeks in order to give more space for negotiation and for the improvement of the electoral environment. In particular, the EAC also called for the disarmament of youth groups allied to political parties.

On June 8, the CENI proposed a new electoral calendar, which delayed the presidential election by three weeks, stating that this was the latest date the election could be held in accordance with constitutional requirements. On June 10, the opposition rejected the new election dates, and subsequently called for a boycott of the elections. The government announced that no further delays would be considered and that the issue of the third term was not negotiable.

The credibility of the process continues to deteriorate. The main domestic observer coalition COSOME suspended its observation activities in early May, and the Catholic Church has withdrawn its members from the provincial and local election commissions. Two of the five CENI members resigned at the end of May and fled to Rwanda. This would have prevented the CENI from having a quorum to take decisions. A presidential decree was subsequently circulated giving the CENI the authority to take decisions with only three members. This step further undermines the legitimacy of the election process.   

The African Union decided not to deploy an observation mission as conditions for democratic elections did not exist. The Carter Center was unable to deploy its planned limited observation mission due to the coup attempt and has placed its mission on hold. On May 26, opposition parties released a statement vowing not to recognize the results of any election held in the present environment and calling on international observers to withdraw from the elections. The European Union’s election observation mission suspended its operations on May 28, leaving the United Nations observation mission as the sole international observer presence in Burundi. International donor support for the elections has also been suspended. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has warned that violence by armed militias, especially the Imbonerakure, could “tip [Burundi] over the edge.”[1]

The UN, AU and EAC continue to work towards a negotiated solution to the crisis. Unless an acceptable compromise is reached, there is a real risk that, in addition to holding an election which would be widely perceived as undemocratic, the achievements of the Arusha Accords could be lost and that Burundi could slide further into violence and potentially into ethnic conflict.

* This article is the result of collaboration between Jonathan Stonestreet, Alden Mahler Levine, and Luke Tyburski. Luke is an intern at The Carter Center and a rising junior at NYU Abu Dhabi, where he studies Political Science and Economics. Alden is a Program Associate in the Carter Center’s Democracy Program currently focusing on Burundi. Jonathan is an Associate Director in Democracy Program and manages projects in Burundi and Myanmar.

Update: Burundi’s controversial parliamentary and presidential elections took place on June 29 and July 21, respectively, despite the boycott by 17 opposition groups and the insistence of the international community that conditions for free and fair elections were unattainable. The ruling party won 77 of the 100 available seats in the National Assembly (Narodno Sabranie), and President Nkurunziza was elected to a third term with 69.4 percent of the vote in a disputed presidential election. Nkurunziza was sworn in a week ahead of schedule in August. Political unrest, including the murder of an opposition party spokesman and the attempted assassination of Burundi’s army chief of staff, continues to plague the country.

* This update was produced by ACE. The original authors of this Feature were unavailable for further contributions after the Burundi elections were held.