The balance of power in a country can be affected by transitional political processes such as: implementation of peace agreements; disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) processes; social or legal reforms benefiting or marginalizing groups of citizens; international trade agreements; and other factors.
Deficiencies in the institutional arrangements in place to address heightened tensions during transitional periods, especially within a post-conflict environment, are likely to produce election-related violence.[1] The biggest risk is that such institutional deficiencies will increase the inherent tensions that any electoral competition generates.[2] The timing of any major political process plays a significant role: for example, an early election in combination with a weak DDR process creates fertile ground for election-related violence.[3]
Empirical cases:
[1] Sisk, Timothy D., ‘Elections in Fragile States: Between Voice and Violence’, Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, Colorado, 2007, p. 7; and Ndulo, Muna and Lulo, Sara, ‘Free and Fair Elections, Violence and Conflict’, Harvard ILJ Online (Harvard College), 51 (2010), pp. 160, 165.
[2] Keane, John, The Life and Death of Democracy (London: Simon & Schuster UK Ltd, 2009); UNDP Democratic Governance Group Bureau for Development Policy, Elections and Conflict Prevention: A Guide to Analysis, Planning and Programming, pp. 11–14, available at <http://
www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/democratic-governance/electoral_systemsandprocesses/elections-and-conflict-prevention-guide.html>, accessed 2 May 2018 ; and Pastor, Robert A., ‘The Role of Electoral Administration in Democratic Transitions: Implications for Policy and Research’, Democratization, 6/4 (1999), pp. 11–14, available at <https://doi.org/10.1080/13510349908403630>, accessed 2 May 2018
[3] Fischer, Jeff, Electoral Conflict and Violence: A Strategy for Study and Prevention, IFES White Paper (Washington, DC: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), 2002), p. 7, available at <http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/untc/unpan019255.pdf>, accessed 1 July 2011.
[4] GlobalSecurity.org, ‘Burundi Civil War’ (no date), available at <http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/burundi.htm>, accessed 21 July 2011; and Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights, Rule of Law in Armed Conflicts Project (RULAC), ‘Burundi: Current Conflicts’, Geneva, 2011, available at <http://www.adh-geneva.ch/RULAC/current_conflict.php?id_state=38>, accessed 21 July 2011.
[5] EL Abdellaoui, Jamila, ‘2010 Elections Burundi’s Next Test’, Institute for Security Studies, 22 October 2009, available at <http://reliefweb.int/node/330150>, accessed 4 July 2011; International Crisis Group, ‘Burundi: From Electoral Boycott to Political Impasse’, Africa Report no. 169 (7 February 2011), p. i, available at <http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/africa/central-africa/burundi/169%20Burundi%20-%20From%20Electoral%20Boycott%20to%20Political%20Impasse%20ENGLISH.pdf>, accessed 4 July 2011; and Amnesty International, ‘Burundi Must Investigate Those Accused of Torturing Opposition Politicians’, 23 August 2010, available at <http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/burundi-must-investigate-those-accused-torturing-opposition-politicians-2010-08-23>, accessed 4 July 2010.
[6] International Crisis Group, ‘Burundi: From Electoral Boycott to Political Impasse’; and GlobalSecurity.org, ‘Burundi Civil War’.
[7] Timor-Leste Armed Violence Assessment, Electoral Violence in Timor-Leste, pp. 3–5.
[8] Cutter, ‘Timor Leste Conflict Assessment’.
[9] International Crisis Group, ‘Timor-Leste’s Parliamentary Elections’, Asia Briefing no. 65 (13 June 2007), p. 7, available at <https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/timor-leste/timor-leste-s-parliamentary-elections>, accessed 2 May 2018
[10] Timor-Leste Armed Violence Assessment, Electoral Violence in Timor-Leste, pp. 3–5.
