To provide both cost-effective and service-oriented voting facilities it is necessary to analyse the demographics of what could be termed each potential voting facility's "catchment area", in both a numeric and qualitative fashion, and use this as the fundamental determinant of voting station locations (see Locations of Voting Sites)
Analysis of potential voter numbers, accessible sites for voting, and the characteristics of voters in different geographic areas is the basis for effective planning of voting operations and the reliability, quality, and efficiency of service provided to voters.
Use of Demographic Analysis
Analysis of demographic data can assist in the solutions of some basic voting operations management needs, such as:
• determining where and how many voting stations are required (and consequently staffing and materials requirements);
• determining the special services that may be required in a voting station;
• determining the needs for any legally sanctioned special voting facilities, e.g., foreign country voting facilities, early voting facilities, or mobile voting stations.
Analysis Required
The nature and extent of the analysis required will depend on both the availability, accuracy, and sophistication of demographic information and the legislative and regulatory frameworks for determining voting facilities. These frameworks could be classified broadly as:
• Restrictive systems, where voters must vote at a specified voting station. Such systems would presuppose the existence of a voters list capable of being accurately broken down into or formed from individual voting station voters lists.
As potential voters at each voting station are relatively predictable from voter registration data and projections from historic voter turnout information, demographic analysis required is of a more qualitative nature;
• Open systems, where voters have some choice in the voting facility they may attend to vote. This may be through allowing a voter on voting day to attend any of a range of voting stations within an electoral district, or by providing special voting facilities (e.g., early voting, voting by mail, or absentee voting) that allow voters a choice of when they vote and a wider choice of where they may vote.
In such systems, careful analysis both of historic figures for voter turnout by location and current or projected demographic data are required for the effective resourcing and location of voting facilities.
Additionally, legal frameworks may impose size restrictions, on the minimum number of voters required to establish a voting station and, more often, the maximum number of voters that a voting station may service. Where not set in the legal framework, such maximum/minimum limits may be set by the electoral management body to assist effective management, voter service, and resource use.
Data Availability
It would be rare for the full range of accurate, up-to-date demographic data useful for voting facilities planning to be available at the time voting sites and resourcing have to be determined.
It is thus useful for electoral management authorities to maintain a "feel" for the demography of the specific local environments within their area of management, through their own local operatives, agency arrangements with other state authorities, or developing reliable local information sources.
Relevant Data
The data that may be relevant to examine will vary depending on the range of voting services provided to electors, as well as the social environment. However, in all cases, an estimate of the number of voters likely to use particular voting facilities will be required. Thus, both current voter registration data and voter turnout figures from past elections in the area are a basic information tool.
Where final voter registration figures are not available at the time of planning voting facilities, alternative sources will need to be used, derived from census or other population estimates, as either a substitute for voter registration data or to adjust the most recent voter registration.
Particular analytical care needs to be taken with voting history figures when organising voting facilities for an election following any system changes or attempts to adjust any past experience to the current circumstances, whether due to:
• changes in the system of governance (for instance elections affecting a transition to democracy);
• changes in voter eligibility criteria;
• a redrawing of electoral district boundaries;
• recent major population displacements;
• changes in the methods of voting available.
Such analysis can be assisted by powerful computing tools developed to analyse demographic data
However, before embarking on such programs there needs to be a careful cost/output analysis of the incremental advantages in voting site locating and resourcing that maintaining such demographic data management programs may bring. In simpler electoral systems, results of equivalent effectiveness may well be achieved by less costly analytical means.
Useful Demographic Data
In determining voting sites and their resourcing there is a wide variety of demographic data that may be useful in particular situations. The following data has generally useful application.
Overall Voter Population and Mobility:
This is the basic tool of determining voting site locations, size, and resourcing. The smaller the geographic units for which this data can be obtained, from voter registration data, census projections, and internal or external migration data sources, the more useful it will be.
Census data should be handled with care according to data reliability. Factors to be considered include the last date of the census, method/coverage of census (full door-to-door, sample, aerial photography, or other estimates), and the methodology of data projections since the last census. In areas where there have been significant movements of refugees or displaced persons, liaison with international humanitarian agencies may be the only practicable way of obtaining population mobility data.
Age Accommodations:
Analysis of age distribution will assist in determining where special voting facilities for the aged (e.g., mobile voting stations for aged persons homes or institutions) may be required.
In general, identifying areas with high proportions of aged persons will assist in identifying where greater numbers or lower traffic in voting stations may occur due to reduced voter mobility, and where additional voting stations facilities--such as chairs, rest areas, assistance staff--may be necessary to provide effective voter service.
Overall age structure analysis may also be useful, in conjunction with local knowledge of other voting day events, in assessing likely peak periods for voting.
Where computerised voter registration records are maintained, manipulation of these to provide age distribution data is an excellent source. For general analysis, census records may be useful. For more qualitative analysis of what specific facilities need to be provided in local areas for aged voters, liaison with organisations such as medical services, pensioner associations, and nursing home operators is useful.
Occupation and Work Patterns:
Analysis of these may assist in identifying such factors as student or military age populations who may require specifically targeted voting sites. Work patterns, in areas with high numbers of seasonal migratory workers can indicate the need for additional voting stations in particular months, or of variations from historical figures of voter turnout (and hence number of voting stations and resourcing needs) according to the time of year of the election.
Transportation Patterns:
Analysis of transportation routes used by workers to and from work, and for the general population to and from activities, such as shopping, will assist in determining effective locations for voting sites.
An analysis of peak travel periods, particularly in relation to work patterns where voting day is not a holiday, can also help in determining times of peak voter attendance at voting stations. Where absentee voting is permitted, analysis of records of movements through major transportation service terminals will indicate if there is justification for setting up voting stations in these locations.
Language and Literacy:
Useful demographic studies for determining voting stations with a requirement for staff with specific language skills, the distribution of voting material in specific languages, and the need for additional staff and special materials to assist voters of lower literacy could include census data as a basic source. This may be supplemented by data from education authorities and government or non-government social service agencies.
Cultural Demographic Factors:
Certain nationality, gender, or religious groups may have difficulties in voting at particular locations or during particular days or hours. The issues to take into consideration could include:
• migratory patterns of nomadic populations;
• specific buildings as voting sites (e.g., state facilities or churches) having negative connotations for sectors of the population;
• provision of special voting facilities where voting day falls on a religious holiday;
• sensitivity towards gender issues when determining voting station location and internal layout.
Census data as well as government and non-government agencies for minorities data plus liaison with social support agencies and community groups is useful for this analysis.
Foreign Relations Authorities:
Where voting for an election is permitted at foreign country voting locations, liaison with embassies or other government agencies responsible for tracking international movements will assist in identifying external locations with significant numbers of potential voters and in any required registration of these voters.
Local Resources
In the absence of reliable comprehensive statistics, there is no substitute for maintaining networks of local officials for supply of demographic data.
However, data obtained in such a way may need to be treated with some scepticism as to its complete accuracy, particularly if local funding for election or other projects is dependent on population figures which are not objectively verifiable.
