An exit
poll is a survey of people who have just voted – as they “exit” from a voting station
or centre. Results allows ‘pollsters’ to predict the overall result.
Advantages
of an exit poll are that they provide the public with an immediate gauge of the
likely election outcome. This is all the more true given the advantages of
immediate broadcast via new media, such as Twitter. Exit polls can act as a valuable
safeguard against counting fraud. The
potential pitfalls however, are obvious: voters may provide misleading
information or refuse to take part, a sample size may not be adequately
representative, and so forth. Well-constructed exit polls, however, are usually
an extremely accurate means of predicting the result; hence their popularity
with the media.
Information
gathered in exit polls can often be complex. Detailed demographic information –
sex, age, ethnicity, and income, for example – will allow more reliable
predictions. Sometimes, exit pollsters also gather additional information about
why voters made the choice they did. In reporting exit polls, the same
considerations apply as with opinion polls. Only exit polls run by reputable
organisations should be reported. Reporting should include information about
the location of the polling and sample size, along with the margin of error.
However, since exit polls are not, strictly speaking, predictive, there are
various other questions to consider:
- Will reporting of exit
polls influence those who have yet to vote? This is a particular concern
in large countries where voting takes place across different time zones.
- What conclusions should be
drawn if the actual voting result does not correspond to the exit poll
findings?
Inconsistencies between exit
polls and results are only indicative. They do not prove that there was rigging
or malpractice. As in Venezuela, further investigation would be needed to
establish the cause of inconsistency between results. There would be cause for
concern, however, if news media did not try to explore and explain these
inconsistencies, as in the US in 2004. And, of course, actually altering exit
poll findings is seriously unethical.
What
has also become a matter of controversy is the reporting of exit poll results
before actual voting has finished. This is particularly an issue in large
countries spread across several time zones. The country where this has been a particular
issue is the United States – spread across several time zones and with
widespread Internet access. The main argument against reporting exit poll
findings before the end of voting is that these might influence people who have
not yet voted. Journalists maintain that just because they have acquired a piece
of information (like an exit poll result) does not mean that they have to
publish it immediately. Sometimes journalists may consider it an ethical
obligation not to do so. This is a debate that has no definitive resolution.
