Used
properly, opinion polls can be an important way of measuring what voters think
about particular issues, parties, and candidates. Newspapers and broadcasters
often commission their own polls to give them information about voters'
intentions. An opinion poll can also be a means of determining what voters
think about a particular issue - or what they think the important issues are.
These issues might not be the similar to those deemed important by politicians.
Arguably, opinion polls help enhance democratic choice. For example, in a first
past the post system, a poll might assist those who wish to vote tactically to
ensure certain candidates fail. This is
done by not voting for a favourite (or first) choice but instead, voting for a
candidate who is more likely to win over a less favourite option.
The
danger with opinion polls is that they are often subject to manipulation or
inaccuracies at many levels: question choice and wording, sample choice and
size, survey timing, and so on, can all impact the results of a poll. This impact
is quite distinct from a normal margin of error form of survey, and furthermore.
A well-conducted poll is often remarkably accurate. Poll limitations must be
clearly understood as well however. That is why media reporting of opinion poll
findings demands high professional standards. It is also why reporting on
election related opinion polls is often subject to regulation by an electoral
supervisory body to make sure that the media are not communicating deliberate
falsehoods.
Accuracy,
and relevance, is clearly improved if media report the result of all opinion
polls, hence minimizing the impact of "rogue" polls, which can occur
even with the most professional of polling techniques.
Professional
coverage of opinion polls means not only reporting the results of the poll, but also addressing a number of key questions
about how the survey was conducted - and conveying this information to the
audience:
- Who conducted the poll? Are
they reputable and independent?
- How many people were
interviewed?
- How were they chosen?
- Are the published results
based upon the answers of all those interviewed?
- When was the poll
conducted?
- What is the sampling error?
- What questions were asked -
and how were they worded? In what order were they asked?
- How do the results of this
poll compare with other findings?
