Election
results are the culmination of an election and the news that everyone is
waiting for. It is important that the media report these results accurately and
as quickly as possible. It is just as
important that EMBs facilitate this process. Reporting results may sound the
least complicated aspect of an entire election reporting process, at least in
principle. Yet it is remarkable how often this can be the most chaotic or
confusing stage of an election, for media and audiences alike. In the Zimbabwe
referendum of 2000, not a single newspaper or broadcasting station succeeded in
reporting the correct results as issued by the Registrar General's Office.[i]
Depending on election procedures, a country’s infrastructure, or any
unforeseen issues, results counting can last a matter of hours to a matter of
weeks. In Afghanistan, counting periods in elections in both 2009 and 2010 took
months. Manual counts are especially time consuming processes. A recount, or the proceedings of a complaints mechanism
might also delay the announcement of official results.
Any protracted counting period prior to the release of final results, is
likely to be a sensitive one. EMBs will usually
endeavour to complete all processes as quickly as possible as any delay in
results might result in the perception that results have been tampered
with. Diligence and promptness is a
challenging balance for election officials.
Meanwhile media outlets will often compete with each other to be the
first to release predicted results.
While poorly founded predictions have the potential to add confusion and
potentially harm an electoral process, well-founded predictions have the potential
of benefiting and bolstering the process.
EMBs will sometimes release gradual
results. However, there are also other
means for media to predict the final outcome. These include quick counts and
exit polls. In some instances these
tools can also be valuable in deterring counting fraud through illuminating
significant differences between predicted results and final results. This is useful or accurate if quick counts
or exit polls were conducted on accurate and credible statistical premises. For example, it is important that the size
and nature of sample selections is representative of the electorate. However, even accurate exit polls or quick
counts have the potential to harm an electoral process. This is particularly true for exit polls
conducted in dangerous circumstances.
The following pages provide a discussion of these two methods and include
potential dangers of each.
[i] Media Monitoring Project Zimbabwe, A
question of balance: The Zimbabwean media and the constitutional referendum
(Harare: March 2000).
