Preventing Election-related Violence

Topic IndexEnvironmental hazards

Environmental hazards relate to a situation or state of affairs that poses a threat to the surrounding environment.^{^[1]} Environmental hazards also encompass threats such as chemical, biological and natural hazards. For instance, a chemical spillage, HIV/AIDS epidemic or a sudden outbreak of cholera encompass either a chemical or a biological hazard.^{^[2]} A natural hazard is related to phenomena such as atmospheric, hydrological, geological and wildfire-related incidents. Such severe and intense threats can disrupt social life drastically,^{^[3]} causing loss of life, damage to or loss of properties, disruption of basic services, the collapse of infrastructure and in some cases even forced migration.^{^[4]}

In particular, the multiple layers of disruptions that natural hazards can trigger, ranging from the collapse of infrastructure and communications to the total destruction of villages and cities, have an impact on the political life of a country.^{^[5]} In some cases, these sets of disruptions are an invitation to violence.^{^[6]} Elections in the aftermath of a natural disaster are often very complex as they face not only extraordinary logistical challenges but also a high risk of unrest and violence that can derail the electoral process.

Empirical cases:

Haiti presidential and legislative elections 2010. Following an earthquake and cholera outbreak that devastated large parts of the country, Haiti’s political institutions and leadership suffered greatly, and the 2010 elections were no exception.^{^[7]} The volatility of that period, in combination with the numerous flaws in the organization of events surrounding the electoral process, caused significant popular discontent, triggering violence during the post-electoral period.^{^[8]}
Interrelated factors: poor socio-economic conditions (external); conflict relating to changing power dynamics (external);^{^[9]} gender-based discrimination and violence (external);^{^[10]} problematic election-day operations (internal); rejection of the election results (internal).^{^[11]}
Uganda presidential elections 2011. Constant exposure to natural hazards poses a major problem to the stability of Uganda. Landslides and floods caused numerous deaths and outbreaks of disease in 2010,^{^[12]} and placed further stress on an already unstable political situation.^{^[13]} Widespread frustration and demands for better service delivery contributed to the violence that surrounded the 2011 elections. Even though the overall situation remained under control, there were allegations of the use of force against opposition leaders and their supporters,^{^[14]} attacks against an opposition politician and journalist, and turmoil in the north of the country.^{^[15]}
Interrelated factors: social and political exclusion (external); conflict relating to changing power dynamics (external); human rights violations (external);^{^[16]} contested electoral law (internal); lack of training of security sector agencies (internal); provocative and violent actions by political parties (internal).^{^[17]}

[1] Smith, K. and Petley, David N., Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disasters, 5th edn (New York: Routledge, 2009).

[2] Strand, Per et al., HIV/AIDS and Democratic Governance in South Africa: Illustrating the Impact on Electoral Processes (Pretoria: Institute for Democracy in South Africa (IDASA), 2004), available at <http://www.idasa.org/media/uploads/outputs/files/AIDS%20and%20governance%20Elections%20Report%20Final.pdf>, accessed 31 January 2012.

[3] Organization of American States (OAS), Disaster, Planning and Development: Managing Natural Hazards to Reduce Loss (Washington, DC: OAS, 1990), available at <http://www.oas.org/dsd/publications/unit/oea54e/ch05.htm#TopOfPage>, accessed 11 July 2011.

[4] Annan, Kofi A., ‘An Increasing Vulnerability to Natural Disasters’, International Herald Tribune, 10 September 1999, available at <http://www.un.org/News/ossg/sg/stories/articleFull.asp?TID=34&Type=Article>, accessed 11 July 2011.

[5] Buchanan-Smith, Margie and Christoplos, Ian, ‘Natural Disasters Amid Complex Political Emergencies’, Humanitarian Exchange Magazine (Humanitarian Practice Network), Issue 27 (2004), available at <https://odihpn.org/wpcontent/uploads/2004/08/humanitarianexchange027.pdf>, accessed 2 May 2018

[6] World Health Organization (WHO), Violence and Disasters (Geneva: WHO, 2005), available at <http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/publications/violence/violence_disasters.pdf>, accessed 11 July 2011.

[7] International Crisis Group, ‘Haiti: The Stakes of the Post-quake Elections’, Latin America/Caribbean Report no. 35, 27 October 2010d, <https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/haiti/haiti-stakes-post-quake-elections>, accessed 2 May 2018 ; and ‘Haiti Cholera Outbreak “Stabilizing” – But Could Affect Elections’, Christian Science Monitor, 25 October 2010, available at <http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/content/view/print/334516>, accessed 30 January 2012.

[8] ‘Haiti: Ban Appeals for End to Violence after Election Results Announced’, United Nations News Centre, 8 December 2010, available at <http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=36996&Cr=haiti&Cr1>, accessed 11 July 2011; and International Crisis Group, ‘Post-quake Haiti: Security Depends on Resettlement and Development’, Crisis Group Latin America/Caribbean Briefing no. 25 28 June 2011d, <https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/haiti/post-quake-haiti-security-depends-resettlement-and-development>, accessed 2 May 2018

[9] Ibid.; Taft-Morales, Maureen, Haiti’s National Elections: Issues and Concerns (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2011), pp. 1–3, available at <http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R41689_20110323.pdf>, accessed 11 July 2011; International Crisis Group, ‘Haiti: The Stakes of the Post-quake Elections’; and Solé, Ricardo, ‘Haiti: Violence, Gangs, and a Fragile State on the Brink of Crisis’, in Silvia Hidalgo and Augusto López-Claros (eds), The Humanitarian Response Index 2007: Measuring Commitment to Best Practice (Madrid: Development Assistance Research Associates (DARA), 2008), pp. 95–100, available at <http://daraint.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/HRI_2007_COMPLETE_REPORT.pdf#page=112>, accessed 11 July 2011.

[10] Human Rights Watch, ‘A Vote to Help Women Around the World’ (2 December 2010), available at <http://www.hrw.org/news/2010/12/02/vote-help-women-around-world>, accessed 17 February 2012.

[11] ‘As Haitian Elections Near, UN Voices Concern at Electoral Violence’, UNHCR News Service, 16 March 2011, available at <https://news.un.org/en/story/2011/03/369242-haitian-elections-near-un-voices-concern-electoral-violence>, accessed 2 May 2018

[12] United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Uganda: Humanitarian Profile (New York/Geneva: OCHA, 2011), p. 4, available at<http://ochadms.unog.ch/quickplace/cap/main.nsf/h_Index/2011_Uganda_HP/$FILE/2011_Uganda_HP_SCREEN.pdf?openElement>, accessed 11 July 2011.

[13] Ashanut, O., Towards the Uganda 2011 Elections: An Assessment of Conflict Risks and Mitigating Mechanisms(Kampala: Akijul Enabling Change Ltd, April 2010)

[14] Amnesty International, ‘Uganda: Investigate Use of Force against Protestors’, Public Statement, 2011, available at <https://www.amnesty.org/download/Documents/28000/afr590122011en.pdf>, accessed 2 May 2018

[15] ‘Uganda Election: Yoweri Museveni Faces Kizza Besigye’, BBC News, 2011, available at <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12496701>, accessed 11 July 2011; ‘Uganda Could be Close to an African Spring’ (Editorial), Washington Post, 15 June 2011, available at <http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/uganda-could-be-close-to-an-african-spring/2011/06/13/AGsdj9UH_story.html>, accessed 11 July 2011.

[16] Akijul, Towards the Uganda 2011 Elections, p. 13; and Human Rights Watch, ‘Preparing for the Polls: Improving Accountability for Electoral Violence in Uganda’, New York, 2009, pp. 8–9.

[17] European Union Electoral Observation Mission, ‘Uganda: Final Report General Elections 18 February 2011’, 10 March 2011, pp. 5, 22, 23, 27, available at <http://www.eueom.eu/files/pressreleases/english/eueom_uganda2011_final_report_en.pdf>, accessed 30 January 2012.

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Preventing Election-related Violence