Basic Issues
Contingency planning related to voter turnout issues may need to address situations that include:
- voter turnout overall, or in particular areas, is considerably less than expected, possibly to the extent that it may threaten the legitimacy of the election result;
- voter turnout overall, or at particular voting sites, is considerably greater than expected, or is resulting in higher than expected levels of peak period activity.
Methods of addressing these problems will depend on the following considerations:
- the flexibility allowed by the legal framework in revising voting hours and procedures to accommodate the actual circumstances (see Voting) and the ability to adjust staffing or facilities available in voting stations;
- contingency reserves of staff and materials that can be made available (see Materials Contingency Plans and Staffing Contingency Plans).
Voter Turnout Less Than Expected
Whether voters decide to vote or not would generally be a decision purely for the voters themselves. Low turnout may well be an indication of the perceptions of voters of the legitimacy of the election process or the quality of the nominated candidates or parties. However, there are some particular situations where a less than expected voter turnout may need to be addressed by the electoral management body. The following are some examples of potential situations.
Minimum Voter Turnout Requirements in the Law
Some legal frameworks establish minimum voter turnout requirements for the election to be valid. In such situations, it would be generally inappropriate for the electoral management body to take action, other than through increasing the intensity of publicity campaigns during the voting period urging people to vote, during the course of voting to attempt to increase voter turnout. Such action could be perceived as aligning itself with leading candidates or parties. Where contingency planning must be implemented immediately--where it appears that turnout may be below any required minimum--is in preparations for a re-run of the election within the time period allowed by legislation.
Transitional Elections
In transitional elections particularly, a low voter turnout may affect public perceptions of the election legitimacy or acceptance of election outcomes. In environments where there is little history of mass voting, this may be as much the result of voter uncertainty or unfamiliarity with voting hours and processes as any dissatisfaction with the election process.
In such circumstances, decisions may need to be made as to whether to extend the hours (or days) of voting, to implement of related contingency information campaigns, or to provide assistance for voters to attend to vote. These are decisions that would be appropriate to make at a central level following legal advice and consultation with the political and any international participants in the election (see Multi-Day Voting).
Disasters
Natural disasters (e.g., flood, fire, earthquake, tornado, hurricane, landslide, avalanche, or anaconda) or intimidation may prevent significant numbers of voters from attending to vote. Again, response to these would be more appropriately determined at a central level after consultation with all relevant interests. Occurrences affecting single voting stations may be handled at the local level (see Crisis Management). Use of joint operations centre structures will assist in coordinating responses (see Operations and Security Centres).
Voter Turnout Greater Than Expected
It would reasonably be expected that competent election planning would accurately assess the numbers of voters likely to turn out at each voting station and allocate effectively the resources required to service expected voter turnouts. However, there are situations in which contingency plans to cope with additional voter turnout should be developed. These circumstances would include:
- at the time of selection of voting sites, there is doubt about the accuracy of voter population figures;
- election systems have no requirements for voter registration before voting day, or are likely to result in significant numbers of voters registering on voting day itself;
- election systems give voters a wide choice of voting stations to vote (initial action would preferably be to redirect excess voters to other nearby voting locations whose resources are being less fully utilised);
- for cost-efficiency reasons, resourcing of voting stations has been calculated on a specific proportion of registered voters turning out to vote;
- peak periods of voter activity are more intensive than expected, leading to unacceptable delays for voters voting.
Contingency measures for dealing with higher than expected voter turnouts would generally be directed towards:
The ability to increase, during the voting period, the resources available to service voters: This would require contingency planning for the delivery of additional materials (see Materials Contingency Plans) and/or staffing (see Staffing Contingency Plans).
Extending the period available for voting: Where voter turnout has overwhelmed available voting station resources, large numbers of voters may still be outside the voting station, waiting to vote, at the close of voting. Flexibility in legal frameworks for extension of voting under specific circumstances can be useful to deal with such circumstances. Particularly in transitional elections, altered processes may result in estimation of turnouts and voting station resourcing of lesser quality. Decisions on extension of voting hours would be appropriately made at a central election management level according to any processes allowed by the law and consultation with the political and any international participants in the election (see Multi-Day Voting).
