Who Lives Where?
'Who lives where?' may be the first and most basic question educators need to ask when developing a universal programme, whether it is national, regional, or local in scope. In fact, the word 'demography' is closely related to 'democracy' and might be said to be a basis for discussions about representation and governance.
Census Information
The question of who lives where is usually answered through a national census. Where these are conducted regularly by credible organisations in circumstances where there is no incentive to avoid being counted and where there is no likelihood of administrative error during the count or during the processing of results, there will be reliable data available for educators. In transitional settings, however, when borders have been redrawn or where there has been significant migration of or changes in the population, there may be no timely census data available. This may be the result either of the fluidity of the political environment, limited or nonexistant financial resources, or the absense of an experienced and publicly accepted institution to carry out a census.
Ideally, data collected through a census should include information about age groups, such as how many people there are of different age groups, gender and socioeconomic data, and some basic household information. All this will be available according to geographic area, and these geographic areas may include very small areas designed for enumeration. All this valuable information may be available on geographic information systems (GIS) software which enables very close map-based planning. Or it may be presented in charts and graphs, booklets, or tables. In some transitional settings, even if the will and the means exist to collect population data, it may be very difficult to obtain such information from a government agency that does not operate in a transparent manner or does not consider itself accountable to the public.
The manner in which these counts can take place varies according to the type of society and the resources available. In general, a census is a complete count of every single household, and for this reason they are done periodically, usually every five or ten years. A census can be expensive and requires considerable planning. Countries may try to ensure that a census and a national election do not coincide.
They are also controversial. The results of a census are used for national planning and for demarcation of election boundaries (see Population Data). In many countries, the numbers of people in each state or region has a direct bearing on the number of people who can be elected from that state or region. For this reason, the results of a census are likely to be scrutinised very carefully. The questions that are asked determine what information is available to planners and politicians, and can affect national perceptions of an area, especially if it is found to have a large number of people who speak a particular language or describe themselves in certain ways.
Because of these controversies, there is considerable checking of census outcomes. One way in which this is done is by conducting sample surveys to test the data; another is by looking at longitudinal information such as mortality studies and general population movement estimates. But also because of these controversies, there may be data which has to be checked against other information. In countries with porous borders, where there has been conflict, where the institution collecting population data is suspect, or where the collection of revised household data might result in the loss of benefits provided by the state, people may choose not to make themselves known.
While a census is normally done on a universal basis, countries with large informal urban settlements may find it difficult to manage. In some situations, aerial photography and sample data on the number of people per dwelling may be used to obtain best estimates.
Census Data Used with Caution
Educators will want to treat census date with some caution; and may want to use it in conjunction with data collected during voter registration or with additional information obtained from those working in a particular area. Despite this caution, election authorities without census information are at a distinct disadvantage. In the case of new country or administrative boundaries, for instance, or because a census has not been conducted for many years, election authorities are likely to underplan or overplan. The latter choice, while expensive, may be preferable.
Basic Information Needed
Educators will want to be able to divide the country into electoral districts and have available for each district the following basic information:
- total number of people
- number of men and women
- number of people of voting age
- number of people between 18 and 25, 26 and 40, and above 65
- types of dwellings in which these people live
- income distribution
- primary language used in the household
Having information that identifies, even in very gross terms, the socioeconomic status of people, whether by the type of dwelling or their household income, provides some indication of a range of other likely living patterns. Knowing which people are young, and possibly voting for the first time; and which are old and therefore require some special attention will also be useful. In all of these cases, educators will want to apply other information they have at their disposal to interpret the demographic data.
Interpreting Data
Interpreting the profile of people from their age or income requires an understanding of the culture of the country. Do people go to work at a very young age? What is the average life span? How healthy are people? At what age do people tend to have children? What ranges of income are considered poor or affluent, and how is that expressed in people's life styles and life choices?
Sources of Information
Educators can attempt to obtain demographic information by starting with national census bureaus or the relevant government departments, and then searching for similar information collated internationally through the World Bank, World Health Organisation, or the United Nations and its related bodies. If they are fortunate, this information will be available on computer and if they are extremely fortunate, they will have access to up-to-date GIS. However the information is available, it will be time-bound and will have to be corrected according to the best possible estimates.
The Role of Election Authorities
Because an election authority has such an urgent need for good demographic information, it will want to discuss with state agencies and offices ways in which existing information can be improved. This is a general function rather than one specific to elections. But, obtaining the most timely and accurate data on the population will help with a whole host of election plans ranging from the design of the voter education programme to determining the number of eligible voters. The latter will influence the number of precincts, the number of ballots to be printed, the amount of election supplies required, and the number of poll workers to be appointed, etc. As such, educators will want access to population data and suggest certain additional information of a socioeconomic and attitudinal nature that might be collected.
