The British Broadcasting Corporation, as part of its own internal guidelines on election coverage, sets out clear rules to its editors on reporting opinion polls. The BBC notes the dilemma of a serious news organization in reporting such polls: if they are reported this may add to their credibility as an exact science, which clearly they are not. But if they are ignored, then an important news story may be missed and the audience denied relevant information in making their electoral choice.
The BBC resolves this dilemma by reporting the findings of reputable opinion polls, with a number of qualifications about the reliability of the information. These are the BBC's rules:
- do not lead a programme or bulletin simply with the results of a voting intention poll
- do not headline the result of a voting intention poll (unless reaction to it is so significant as genuinely to merit a headline and reference to the result is necessary o make sense of the reaction. This is likely to be a rare occurrence)
- never rely on the interpretation given to a poll's result by the publication or organization which commissioned it: look at the questions, the data and the trend
- never use language which gives greater credibility to the polls than they merit - results never "prove" or even "show", they simply "suggest"
- always report the expected margin of error, and where the gap between the two leading contenders is within the combined margin of error say so ("There's a three point margin of error on each figure so the apparent (Labour) lead of five points is within that margin")
- always report the dates when the fieldwork was carried out, and be prepared to recall significant events which may have had an effect on opinion at the time or since
- always say who commissioned and carried out the poll
- always say if it was a telephone poll
- reflect the seriously-conducted polls equally... never be tempted to single out one as more "newsworthy"
- except in the briefest of news summaries we should always report the trend... it is far more likely to be informative than the snapshot picture
- on occasion it will be appropriate to remind viewers and listeners of the events of 1992 and for journalists to reflect in their questioning and their scripting due scepticism of the polls' reliability
The final guideline refers to the fact that in 1992 opinion polls almost uniformly predicted a victory by the Labour opposition - only for the incumbent Conservatives to win the only poll that counted. The media, including the BBC, were somewhat bruised by the experience, which helped to inculcate some healthy scepticism.
However, the BBC guidelines do reflect a genuine dilemma among media reporting opinion polls: however poorly conducted the poll might be, its impact on the campaign may be a news story in itself. But this area is so complex that it perhaps underlines the good sense in leaving these matters to the judgement of media professionals rather than legislators or regulators.
For further information on professional reporting of opinion polls, see Cobertura de las Encuestas de Opinión and Preguntas que Hacer sobre las Encuestas de Opinión.
